With almost six months to go until the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, the United States continues to lead the way in terms of both gold medals (which determine the medal table position except in the case of ties) and total medals, according to Nielsen Gracenote's predictions. 

The forecast comes from Nielsen Gracenote Sports, an audience measurement, data and sports analytics company that provides statistical analysis for sports leagues worldwide. It also tracks major competitions in Olympic sports in the months leading up to the Games. 

The prediction may not be entirely accurate or precise due to the suspension of Russian and Belarusian athletes from competing under their national flags, although they will be able to participate as neutrals, despite the discontent of many and their limited participation in Paris, as well as their lack of recent competition.

"Almost all Russian and Belarusian competitors have been absent from international competition since February 2022," said Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote, told the Associated Press. "Anyone competing in Paris 2024 will make predictions difficult," he added. 

Gracenote predicts that the United States will win a total of 129 medals, 37 of which will be gold. The report puts China in second place with 35 golds, but well behind in the overall tally with 85, making it the best Asian nation. Great Britain, with 17 gold medals, would lead Europe with 64 medals and complete the top three in Paris 2024. 

The host team would finish fourth on the basis of their predicted gold medal tally (26), but fifth on the basis of their predicted overall medal tally. The swap would be with Japan (17 golds and 56 overall). 

Completing the top ten, according to the company, would be Australia (15 golds from 48), who also lead their continent, Italy (13-47), Germany (10-39), the Netherlands (16-35) and South Korea (7-23).

Outside the top ten, Brazil stands out as the best team in Latin American team with 19 medals (9+3+7), while Ethiopia would lead the African nations with 12 (3+5+4), closely followed by Kenya with 11 (3+4+4).

It is worth noting that at the last Summer Olympics, Tokyo 2020 (held in 2021 due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic), Gracenote accurately predicted the top ten countries by total medals, but not their exact order.

It did the same for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, where it named the top five countries, but again failed to provide a perfect order. In fact, it correctly predicted 8 out of the top 10 teams, which was still a commendable performance, especially considering that it also correctly predicted that Norway would break the record for the total number of medals won at a Winter Olympics.